Monday, October 13, 2008

Financial markets recover - a sigh of relief

In a quasi-holiday (Columbus Day), crude oil markets followed the equities market higher, with volatility easing in tandem. Crude volatility eased much less than other financial markets and a follow-on Tuesday would indicate even lower levels.

For those using 3-way strategies (selling net options), there may still be time to capture good premium. Inventory hedge strategies for November include the 65-75 put spread versus the 96 call for zero cost. A move down due to bearish stats Wed would benefit from the decrease in prices and potential for further volatility easing.

We expect the US Treasury to firmly step in and buy US bank equities. This will prompt a follow-on rally in the DJIA after a huge 10% plus up day Monday.