Thursday, April 23, 2009

Further Consolidation, Sing Jetkero Hedging

Energy markets traded slightly higher on very light liquidity yesterday. Benchmark contracts continue to mirror equities as crude futures rallied on the back of a late-day push higher in the DJIA. Fundamentals, including crude stocks at 20-year highs appear powerless to pull the market lower while equities hold onto gains from last month. WTI contango did narrow, as December 2009 traded almost $1.00 closer to the front-month June contract. So long as the benchmark WTI contract trades around $50, expect congested market conditions for the major products. Support remains firm around $48 in June09.

Prompt California Jet fuel prices moved staunchly higher yesterday as sellers raised offers alongside the crude rally. Expect a slow rally in prices during the second half of 2009 due to production cuts, with consolidating action for the next several months. Singapore Jetkero buyers can protect against a rise in prices later this year by purchasing a July through Dec09 price ceiling at $75. This call option can be owned for free by accepting a price floor (short put) at $55. This type of collar hedge typically requires less margin than simply buying swaps with the added benefit of less-painful daily mark-to-market swings.

Singapore, 09:00