Monday, August 4, 2008

Possible Macro-Economic shock on the horizon leading to lower Energy Prices?

Energy prices plummeted yesterday on the back of new data citing increasing damage done to the wallets of US consumers. Unfortunately, it has not been increasing supply, safe and plausable energy alternatives, or simply a more conservative demand climate that is pushing the crude price lower. What we're seeing now is possibly the beginnings of a macro-economic shock resulting from the recent high prices that is now pulling all commodities lower.

Too many potentially bullish factors remain in the mix to delay locking in these lower prices. Every $125 call from September through January in WTI Crude Oil can now be purchased for Zero Cost by selling the $119 put for the same months. This trade puts a ceiling of $125 on your hedging costs for the remainder of the 2008 calendar year while also placing a floor in the market at $119.

JK, HCE Asia (Singapore)